دراسة قياسية لتغير سعر الصرف وأثره على سرعة دوران النقود "دراسة للحالة الليبية خلال الفترة (1970-2010) باستخدام منهجية (Gregory and Hansen)"

Abstract

This study is concerned with showing the impact of exchange rate changes on the speed of money circulation in the Libyan economy during the period (1970-2010), and this is based on the standard method by using cointegration regression methods, the threshold cointegration test (Gregory and Hansen, 1996), and the causality test. In the field of frequencies (Breitung & Candelon, 2006).

  The study found, through the results obtained from the Georgi and Hansen (G-H) test, the existence of a long-run complementary relationship between the two variables of the study with a structural fraction recorded in the years (1973, 2000). The results of estimating the cointegration regression methods “FMOLS, DOLS, CCR” also revealed the existence of a relationship. A non-significant direct correlation between the exchange rate and the speed of money circulation in the long run throughout the study period, in addition to the causality test in the field of frequencies (B-C), the results of which confirmed that there is a causal relationship in one direction starting from the speed of money circulation to the exchange rate in the long run only during the period the study